The Caspian Information Centre, a small think-tank from London, has an interesting report on the upcoming parliamentary elections in Kazakhstan (more from kazakhstan.neweurasia.net on the December polls in this category). The “Inquiry into the Preparations For a Free and Fair Presidential Election in the Republic of Kazakhstan December 4th 2005” is an interesting document in any sense.

Some highlights from the executive summary:

6. We do not accept that an amendment to the Elections Law which prevents public demonstrations during the strictly limited period between the end of campaigning and the announcement of the result necessarily represents a denial of human rights or a step backwards in the development of Kazakhstan’s democratic institutions, as the OSCE/ODIHR asserts in its Needs Assessment Mission (NAM) Report of September 28th 2005. Given the recent upheavals in former CIS states, the reasons for the ban are not difficult to discern. (my emphasis)

9. The large number of investigations into alleged violations of the Elections Law following the September 19th 2004 elections (857) and the 83 prosecutions that followed (see p. 23) suggest that the authorities are, again, making serious attempts to raise standards.

12. We do not accept the judgement of some opposition candidates and journalists that only a relatively few people have benefited from the economic growth that has followed. This is contradicted not only by the obvious vibrancy of Kazakhstan’s major cities but also by data from the IMF, the World Bank and other respected international organisations which shows that the number living below the poverty line has fallen considerably and the wider distribution of wealth has been more rapid than had previously been anticipated. For this reason, and others, we do not believe – as some have alleged - that Kazakhstan is on the verge of a ‘coloured revolution.’

This directly relates to James’s previous post. I don’t really buy into this argument, despite its numerical and quantitative backup by the IMF and the WB. While there is data suggesting a fall in absolute poverty, the gap between rich and poor is certainly widening. And, the ‘booming centres’ hypothesis is simply a little lopsided considering the vast space of Kazakhstan’s territory and the related difficulty in spatial development.

15. What independent evidence there is does not seem to support claims that, having been relaxed in the wake of Independence, media freedoms are now being eroded; the facts would seem to suggest a steady if gradual growth of media freedoms. However, the issue of media ownership remains a vexed issue in Kazakhstan as in many other countries, including those with much longer traditions of democratic rule.

16. The absence of a television company sympathetic to the Kazakhstan opposition and the fact the President’s daughter Dariga Nazarbayeva has substantial media holdings, including controlling interests in more than one television company, suggests that there may be a case for legislation to deal with this situation – as has been suggested by a recent delegation of European parliamentarians.