Kazakh Elections: Precedents and Incentives
The general sentiment regarding the upcoming Kazakhstan election is that Nazarbayev has more to lose by rigging it and quashing opposition than he has to gain, given his popularity (see below reprinted posts, Ben’s earlier post, and the KZ Blog).
Looking backward in time a little, it is interesting to note that this is not the first election held in Kazakhstan where Nazarbayev stood to win handsomely. In past elections, however, Kazakhstan’s president chose to crack down on the opposition anyway to consolidate his rule.
Recall the case of Akezhan Kazhegeldin. Kazhegeldin served as prime minister from 1994 to 1997 and tried to run for president in the election of 1999, but was barred due to his “criminal record.” His crime? Holding an unsactioned meeting to launch his new political party. Faced with arrest, Kazhegeldin fled the country and was nearly extradited from Rome until Italy’s Justice Ministry intervened.
In the past, the fact that he would a) win, and b) be internationally lauded has not prompted Nazarbayev to hold fair elections. While he would almost surely win in these instances, Nazarbayev can not always know that this will hold true. Setting the basis for a system that values and protects fair, competitive elections means that he - and perhaps more importantly, his family - can not always be assured dominance in the long term, even if elections do not threaten his rule in the short term. Much has been written on the political dynasty he is grooming, including his daughter, Dariga, and her husband Rakhat Aliyev, and his son, Timur Kulibayev.
I am not arguing that these elections will be rigged in the same way as past elections. With the United States’ new focus on Kazakhstan as the leading nation in Central Asia coupled with the US State Department’s current emphasis on democracy and freedom, Nazarbayev arguably does have more to gain by legitimizing these elections than those in the past. It is merely interesting to point out that there are precedents, and the incentives that led Nazarbayev to rig elections in the past have not gone anywhere.
on November 28th, 2005 at 10:31 am
I believe that Kazakhstan wants to play big country and the incentives of government in the presidential election and any other thing are a reflection of big ambition to become a strong country. But I’m afraid the country is going to become just a source for a much more industrial trained China.
Baktygul.
on November 29th, 2005 at 5:15 am
Baktygul,
Do you think that a fair presidential election will make Kazakhstan stronger, or weaker? Its neighbor, China, is pretty strong and has a centralized, undemocratic government structure. On the other hand, America is also strong, but has a democratic system.
on November 29th, 2005 at 11:19 am
James,
if presidential election in Kazakhstan is going to be held fairly that would be justa sign of real democracy, which is about equal opportunity for everyone. So, fair election is necessary not only for Kazakhstan but for every Central Asian republic. But the reality is so that Kazakhstan is neighboring with China not America, I mean the country is so far from America and it is in the East with its long history of eastern way of coping the things so that it is obvious that Kazakhstan feels like closer to China than America.
Baktygul.