On Wednesday the Heritage Foundation, a conservative Washington, DC, think tank, a panel discussion was held on the recent elections in Kazakhstan titled “After the Kazakhstan Elections: U.S. Policy in the Caspian and Central Asia.” The panel consisted of Heritage scholar Dr. Ariel Coen, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Matthew Bryza, National Intelligence Officer for Russia and Eurasia Angela Stent, and Brookings scholar Dr. Fiona Hill.

The general opinion of the elections was very positive. All present recognized the OSCE’s findings, but emphasized that the elections were better than anything Kazakhstan, or any other countries in the region, have yet seen.

Mathew Bryza argued that while it is impossible to dispute that there were grievous irregularities, there were also unprecedented improvements, such as published lists of registered voters and publishing election results broken down by precincts. He also emphasized that Nazarbayev clearly, legitimately, and overwhelmingly won the election. Bryza commented that while the US Government is likely to issue a statement calling upon to rectify the shortcomings of the election, it will of course continue to deal with the country and pursue a strategic relationship.

Angela Stent, the second USG representative, described the election as “reasonably fair and free with some question marks.” She said that Kazakhstan is the leading state in Central Asia, and will continue to be. Addressing geopolitics in the region, she said that the US-Kazakh relationship is good and will continue to improve. She also noted that the Shanghai Cooperation Organization will likely gain in importance and influence, and India may become a more prominent player. Finally, she singled out corruption, unemployment, and freedom of the press as the most important areas for improvement.

Fiona Hill spoke on the future of Kazakhstan, and drew parallels between Kazakhstan’s and Russia’s economies. She said that in Russia soaring energy prices have encouraged the intervention of the central government into politics, and as Kazakhstan this will be a very real danger as well. Hill warned that if Kazakhstan goes down this path, there will be a split between the old and new elite, and then there will be political instability that is not currently a danger.

Ariel Coen, commenting on the Nazarbayev’s 91% victory, argued that because pre-election figures were upwards of 70%, and there was a drive to get out the vote just before the polls, 90% is actually within the realm of normalcy for Kazakhstan.

As always, some of the most interesting comments came out during the questions portion of the talk.

A member of the OSCE monitoring team, just back from Kazakhstan, said that overall he was very disappointed in the way the election was conducted, and that he saw multiple instances of voters submitting more than one ballot and intimidation from government officials. He asked the panel if, given the US pressure for reform and the fact that Nazarbayev didn’t need to tamper with election mechanisms to win, this is a sign that Kazakhstan is not interested in building a stronger relationship with the United States.

Mathew Bryza said that the verdict “isn’t entirely in yet” as to whether the election was free and fair not because he doubts OSCE findings, but because it is not over yet, and the Kazakh administration may very well continue to implement reforms.

Francine Kiefer from the Christian Science Monitor asked if there is a new cold war brewing in the region.

Angela Stent said that Russia sees competition in the region as a zero-sum game, and the US and Russia have only just recently begun talking about these difficult issues, but the fact that there is dialogue at all is promising.

Ariel Coen added that the only international TV Central Asians see is Russian, and it is very anti-American in content. According to Coen, Russia goes so far as to ship “political technologists” in to the region to turn public opinion against America. These Russian diplomats publicly argue that the colored revolutions in the region were the consequence of weak governance that was afraid to control its population. In the case of Uzbekistan, the Russians even went so far as to directly say that Andijon was engineered by America. “To pin us with that blood is just disgusting,” Coen said.

Roman Vassilenko, counselor of the Kazakh embassy in Washington, noted that just because there is a media bias in Kazakhstan does not mean it is controlled by the government; in fact, most of it is independent. He also asked if the West wants to be seen as the “democracy police.” Finally, addressing the new “Great Game” has been going on for a long time, and Kazakhstan is a major player in it, though people in the west might forget that. “I would just leave you with a point that President Nazarbayev’s favorite game, aside from tennis and golf, is chess.”

Listen or watch the whole proceedings at the Heritage website.