Recently freed opposition leader Galymzhan Zhakiyanov will probably not become the thorn in Nazarbayev’s side that many had hoped.

Galymzhan Zhakiyanov, leader of the Kazakh democratic opposition set free after four years behind the bars last Sunday, does not intend to return to active politics right away. As far as Zhakiyanov is concerned, both the opposition and the official authorities should take care of development of democracy in the country. Zhakiyanov implied that he himself trusted the authorities to do what was necessary. He said that the authorities had already done a great deal for triumph of democracy in Kazakhstan. Those present at Zhakiyanov’s press conference in Alma-Ata got the impression that imprisonment had undermined his determination and willingness to continue the struggle.

Four years in a Kazakh prison might just do that to one’s will to fight.

Everyone decided that Zhakiyanov was careful not to provide the authorities with the excuse to arrest him on charges of organization of an unsanctioned rally. Indeed, any minor infraction of the Administrative Code, and he will find himself in jail again for the remaining three years of his sentence.

Zhakiyanov’s press conference yesterday was something everyone had been waiting for. Nobody expected it to become the worst disappointment for the Kazakh opposition after the dismal failure in the presidential election last year.

Freeing an opposition leader after the elections are already over, and even then keeping him on a shortleash, is a pretty shrewd (and characteristic) move for Nazarbayev’s regime. He gets most of the PR benefits of liberal reform, but few of the disadvantages.

A martyred opposition leader who leapt back into politics with a vengeance would have been a powerful figure. A released opposition leader not willing to oppose the regime loses even the symbolic power he had from jail.