Correction to previous post
Karakum raised an important point in his comment to my earlier post:
…as of they [Kazakhstan] have anything to export… KZ are only able to cover their internal demand through in kind payments for the transit of Turkmen gas to Russia and Ukraine.
It’s true, Kazakhstan has been a net gas importer until recently:
Although Kazakhstan is currently [ed: 2002] a net importer of natural gas, with the expected increase in the country’s natural gas production, Kazakh officials project that the country’s natural gas exports could reach 1.2 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) per year by 2015.
In 2005, the country exported just a little bit more liquified natural gas than it needed to import, but numbers were down in comparison to 2004, according to Alexander’s Gas & Oil Connections:
Kazakhstan exported 4.787 bn cm of gas worth $ 126.7 mm in the period, down from 6.557 bn cm and $ 187.4 mm in the same period in 2004.
Natural gas imports totalled 4.193 bn cm (4.450 bn cm in the same period in 2004) worth $ 142.8 mm ($ 139.4 mm).
So what can we make of the Kazakh government positioning itself as the future’s safe gas supplier when the volumes that it can export are so negligible? Even if we’re talking a little more long-term here, the South Caucasus pipeline might be filled with Kazakh gas as early as 2008, and other export options have long been in the making. However, Karakum is right in saying that by no means Kazakhstan could be a substitute supplier of gas in the near future.
on January 23rd, 2006 at 2:25 am
Thanks, Ben, for taking time to correct it.
What can make the KZ authorities positioning? It’s just bluff. An act of the same old cheap buffonata, in which they’ve convinced themselves that great powers are ostensibly courting/vying for influence in “Central Asia”, that KZ “compete for regional role” with the UZ, that they play an integrator’s role in “Eurasia” and that they could play good cop (next to bad cop - RU) vis-a-vis perpetually poor Georgians, etc.
As I write, another (slightly more convincing) act of the same buffonata takes place in Moscow, where Putin is meeting with Niyazov.
on January 23rd, 2006 at 2:09 pm
“What can make the KZ authorities positioning? It’s just bluff.”
Bingo!
on January 23rd, 2006 at 11:03 pm
First of all, I would say that Kazakhstan has never tried to vie for influence in Central Asia. Kazakhstan is an undisputed leader in Central Asia almost in all aspects and that is a fact accepted by the majority of countries including US, EU and other major powers. Uzbekistan on the contrary has attempted to become a regional power in Central Asia but failed to do so and along other Central Asian countries runs a high risk to become a failed state. Kazakhstan on the other hand is becoming a big regional power both economically and politically.
As for the gas supplies, Kazakhstan can provide gas to Georgia because Georgia is closer to the Caspian where most of the Kazakhstani gas is based and because it is economically viable to Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan’s foreign policy is based upon pragratism. As far as the Kazakhstan’s dependence on Uzbek gas in the South is concerned, it exists and should be resolved in the next few years; the Zhambyl Oblast Amangeldy field will make Kazakhstan independent in terms of gas. The question here is not whether Kazakhstan has enough gas to supply to Georgia, which Kazakhstan has plenty to do so. Here the question is transportation and pipelines that are still under construction in southern Kazakhstan. Supplies to Georgia are totally different matter.
on June 10th, 2007 at 9:49 pm
Dear All,
I can see that you having a chat about Uz and Kz. Just one point not to be missed while saying that Kz is a regional power: Uzbekistan was, is and will carry on being regional power. This is called smth like historical tradition. They are now calling Kz a regional power!? Maybe, and maybe.. congrats on that?! BUT note that Kz has become what it is being called now AFTER Uz expelled US and said GET THE HELL OUT OF UZB. So I can well deem that Kz’s dominant position is artificially promoted by West. Just analyse the situation before and after the Andijan events which itself was artificial. So UZB remains what is was (is, actually).