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Tightrope diplomacy

Posted by Ben | in Foreign Affairs | on April 21st, 2006
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Kazakhstan could soon walk on a diplomatic tightrope. Being best friends with Tehran is not all too fashionable these days, but for a country with such a “multi-vectored” foreign policy, it is by no means surprising that strengthening ties with Iran is one of Astana’s many strategies.

Crossing fingers that it is still physically possible by then, President Nazarbayev will pay an official visit to Tehran in October, talking about cooperation in the economic field. It is also planned to organise a conference with all Caspian littoral states in Iran later this year.

Can Kazakhstan play an active role in negotiations between Iran and the West? Richard Holbrooke, former assistant Scretary of State, thinks so. While attending the fifth Eurasian Media Forum in Almaty,

[he] urged host Kazakhstan to exert political pressure on its two giant neighbors, China and Russia, to help Washington tighten the noose against nuclear aspirant Tehran.

(…)

He hailed Kazakhstan for giving up its nuclear arsenal back in 1994. “If Kazakhstan set such a fine example, Iran wants to go the other way,” Holbrooke said.

While one shouldn’t overestimate the influence that a country such as Kazakhstan can exert over Iran (and over Russia and China in this regard), it is certainly interesting to see that Astana is pursuing a genuinely individual strategy with regards to Tehran. One thing seems certain: Kazakhstan does not perceive Iran’s (allegedly civilian-only) nuclear program as a threat to its national security.

At the Eurasian Media Forum, there also seems to be a consensus that international sanctions wouldn’t work:

“We have seen in the past that the economic sanctions against various states have proved to be counter effective,” Vyacheslav Kuznetsov, Director of the Institute of Social and Political Research, said at the Fifth Annual Eurasian Media Forum.

Quite a few observers hold that not sanctions but more economic engagement holds the key to bolstering the secular and moderate circles in Tehran (which have - embodied by ex-President Khatami - become less influental in the past). Kazakhstan’s President Nazarbayev is said to prefer a potential Iranian route to all other pipelines (makes most sense on a map…), and could probably not agree more with this ‘engagement’ approach.

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3 Responses to ' Tightrope diplomacy '

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  1. KZBlog said,

    on April 21st, 2006 at 4:15 pm

    Don’t forget that Kazakhstan has a large supply of uranium and is also interested in pursuing nuclear energy, as well as becoming one of the world’s largest exporters of uranium. Hence they may support Iran because sanctions on Iran can set a bad precedent for Kazahstan.

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