A terrorist plot to attack Kazakh targets has allegedly been broken up. According to RFE/RL, a National Security Committee member said that “authorities found weapons along with books and tapes promoting radical religious views. Group members were also tasked with recruiting Kazakh citizens and setting up bases for training militants.” Furthermore, “foreigners” were discovered to be providing backing in the form of instructions for how to build various weapons and recommendations of targets.

And what sort of Kazakh citizens were these foreign terrorists tasked to recruit? According to the Kazakh authorities, political opposition members.

But Minenkov’s claim that the terrorist ring was set up in part to monitor opposition activities sent a different message to the administration’s already-beleaguered political opponents.

Minenkov was careful to avoid saying that any opposition party or movement was involved with the alleged terrorists. But some members of the For a Just Kazakhstan movement regard his comments as an attempt to link the opposition to terrorism.

According to many experts, this sort of thing is far from unknown in Central Asia. However, it does come at a rather convenient/inconvenient time, depending on who you are.

Winners:

• The Kazakh security service – Already somewhat discredited by the recent political murders in which their members were implicated, this will serve as a strong message that they are still hard at work defending Kazakhstan’s national interest.
• The central government – This provides a new reason to be suspicious of the opposition parties; now they can be prosecuted not only for corruption, but for terrorist connections as well.

Losers:

• The opposition – For obvious reasons, they are already up in arms over this issue. “For a Just Kazakhstan’s Serikbai Alibaev stressed that there are no grounds for such a conclusion and called for an investigation of the National Security Committee.”
• Human rights - When terrorists threaten, no country is immune from trading some measure of rights for security.

RFE/RL’s Edige Magauin comments:

Kazakhstan has apprehended terrorists before. But in those cases, they were suspects sought by Russia or Uzbek authorities. Minenkov’s revelation that a terrorist group was operating in Kazakhstan, intent on carrying out attacks there, represents a new and potentially disturbing chapter for Kazakhs.

If this incident is representative of trends to come, Magauin is certainly correct. If foreign-influenced terrorists are increasing their influence in Kazakhstan, many will suffer. Perhaps even more disturbingly, if they are not, Kazakhstan will be copying from Uzbekistan’s playbook in a fashion that does not bode well for civil society.