The President of Russia signed a decree on voluntary resettlement of ethnic Russians from the republics of former Soviet Union to Russia. The decree promises to open the offices in former Soviet countries, where the ethnic Russians can enroll into the state program, which will offer repatriants assistance with finding a work place, help with moving and provide with the initial compensation and social security to the family. It is expected that several million of Russian-speaking people from CIS will move to Russia within 2006-2012.

Does it mean any major demographic change for Kazakhstan? It already changed quite drastically when around 2 million Russian-speaking people left the country since 1989, and around 300 thousand ethnic Kazakhs returned to Kazakhstan (”oralmans”). However, improving economic situation and wide spread use of Russian language in Kazakhstan makes the major outflow of Russians unlikely.

“There is an exodus but not a flood, but now many are coming back, a smaller percentage, but they are coming back,” said Gennady Belyakov to BBC, chairman of a Cossack organisation and a leading figure in the Russian community. There is unemployment, but there are no cases of people being impoverished, certainly in Kazakhstan.”

If civil war made many Russians leave Tajkistan , and the prospects of improvement of economic situation would make Kyrgyz Russians think about changing the country, Kazakh Russian-speaking population does not have direct economic or security risks to make their minds immediately. There might be a hidden discrimination, with the official programs on development of Kazakh language, promotion of ethnic Kazakhs in senior management positions, and nationalising state rhetoric of independence, which also influences people’s moods. Quite often the criticism of the state programs sparks comments like: “leave the country if you don’t like it”. However, some say that it’s not only a discrimination of Russians, but a generally poor situation with human rights - for instance, you don’t see many women in Kazakh Parliament and getting into the public office might be difficult if you do not stick to the official line. So, the decree is likely to touch upon those, who already have made their minds to leave Kazakhstan.

Peeping into the Kazakh forum, which features an extensive discussion on this, one can certainly see doubtful moods there. Some say that the fact that the amount of money for the project was not yet approved is not inspiring. Since the Russian Government promises to compensate for all the rellocation expenses, it’s unlikely that 4.6 billion rubles for 2007 would be enough for it. They will create a Federal Migration office in Almaty, says QsQs user, where you can submit your application, though there is no list of documents that you have to submit. He doesn’t believe that Russia will deal quickly with the compensation and prefers going on his own, plus, he says, you should really not count on being offered a job.

Eduard Poletaev, Kazakh political scientist and chief editor of “The World of Eurasia” says it well:

I am potential participant of the program. However, I am not ready to do it now. I need objective reasons for that - political or economic risks, or if I find out that my relatives or friends gained some financial benefits from this program. Kazakh Russians in the short-run see themselves as living in Kazakhstan. In the long-run, if the authorities become too nationalistic, or there will be language problems (i.e. if the existing balance is changed), Russians may surely leave.