On 21 March, Dr. Igor Tomberg, senior research fellow with the Energy Research Center at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations, wrote an article entitled “Moscow is no Longer Kazakhstan’s Only Friend”:

While Europe, the United States, China and Russia compete for Eurasian resources, Kazakhstan is playing its own game, called “multi-vector politics.” The heightening confrontation between Russia and the West on energy security issues is forcing the government in Astana, the Kazakh capital, to distance itself from Moscow, which naturally irritates the latter.

Kazakhstan is already connected to a pipeline that carries Caspian oil from Baku (Azerbaijan) to Tbilisi (Georgia) and on to Ceyhan (Turkey), from which it is shipped to Western markets bypassing Russia. Nazarbayev discussed the construction of gas and oil pipelines across the Caspian Sea, also bypassing Russia, with U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney last May and with U.S. Secretary of Energy Samuel Bodman last September. In late February, Assistant Secretary of State Richard Boucher reminded Nazarbayev of the agreements reached during his visit to Washington last September.

Moscow is dissatisfied with its Central Asian partner also because of Nazarbayev’s plans to attend an energy summit that will be held in Poland in May. The Polish president, Lech Kaczynski, is expected to meet the leaders of four ex-Soviet countries - Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan - to discuss the possibility of extending Ukraine’s Odessa-Brody oil pipeline to the Polish city of Plock to pump Kazakh oil to Poland. Last month, Astana announced the formation of a Kazakh-Polish working group to discuss the project. Kaczynski also wants to raise the issue during his visit to Astana on March 28.

The article came like a thunder in a clear sky. Because for Russia, in its turn, its “post-Soviet politics” has been dominated by the relations with the Baltic countries, disputes with Georgia and annoyances with the Ukraine. Central Asia is different: far from Europe, it would never enter the European Union, and probably not join NATO (only Kazakhstan joined the Individual Partnership Action Plan on 31 January 2006). It is used to being ruled by Russia and the Soviet Union throughout its history. Kunaev, the First Secretary of the Communist Party of Kazakhstan at the time of the collapse of the USSR, wrote in his book that Kazakh political elite was desperately waiting for orders from Russia shortly after the collapse. Russia was too busy with its own problems though, and the moment was lost. Now the lack of information and the lack of interest in Kazakhstan from Russia results in a paranoia when Kazakhstan becomes independent in its foreign policies.

The EU’s interest in alternative energy sources, expressed recently by Mr. Steinmeier, German foreign minister in Astana, must upset Russia. Add US military bases to the region, and Putin’s dislike for Western democracy promoting NGOs, and you get the whole picture of complicated relations.

During his visit to Moscow on March 19-20 president Nazarbayev assured Putin that Kazakhstan will not compete with Russia, but rather cooperate. There was an interesting comment on KUB (RUS):

Rumor has it that NAN (nickname for Nazarbayev) went to agree on the military and political union. No NATO bases in Kazakhstan! Russia will take part in guarding the outside borders and strengthen its presence on our territory. All corresponding documents will be signed this summer.

Thus, from sitting on three chairs, NAN decisively moved towards Russia: “… diversification is inevitable”.

The reported signs of chill is a nonsense that was being spread by lenta.ru. They first wrote about it, and all the media spread it further. They should have read about the results of the meeting instead. Not chill but concern, serious concern for each other.

It’s like with the spouses - their faces would be serious when they discuss their relations, but it only stresses their attachment. The signs of chill are total indifference, no tears, no reproach, no joy. Mutual reproach is a sign of ongoing passion.

Putin was nervous as a schoolboy who didn’t do his homework, he read out loud his work, stumbling upon the words in his text, our president was, on the other hand, calm and confident, he improvised a bit as usual, and smiled.

Then RIA Novosti reported on 25 March that Nazarbayev did confirm that there will be no NATO base in Kazakhstan. On 30 March the Russian Government chair Mikhail Fradkov came with a two days visit to Astana, where they signed a number of bilateral agreements on oil transit, and discussed plans to build a nuclear power plant in Aktau. Russian President will also visit Astana in the spring.

“Out of 52 million tons (381.2 million barrels) of Kazakh export oil, more than 41 million tons (300.5 million barrels) are pumped via Russia. If Russia can pump more Kazakh oil in transit, we are prepared to increase the volume of crude mumping in this direction,” Nazarbayev said in a televised interview with the Vesti Nedeli (Weekly News) program on Russian television channel.

As one public figure in Moscow, an ethnic Kazakh, said in a private conversation, some Kazakhs are being asked by the Russian government about Kazakhstan’s politics. The chill is exaggerated but there is a potential for further fears. Even though we’re still friends, silly!