Interesting Questions about National Security
This is a translation of Marat’s post on the Russian-language Kazakhstan.Neweurasia blog.
I often read out national security strategy papers, but don’t see answers to some interesting questions that are of serious concern:
1. What shall we do if Kyrgyzstan splits into two parts – northern and southern? It may be lead to general instability, loss of Kazakh investments, problems with energy and water resources and refugees.
2. What will we do if there is a revolt in Xingjian? Although we have the most defended border on the east, we still have to precisely shape out our stand concerning this matter. China is a very serious player, and won’t forgive us a mistake.
3. What is the plan in case of Islam Karimov’s death and possible instability – or even war – in Uzbekistan or Ferghana valley? Will we send our troops? Or provide humanitarian aid? Or just close the border?
4. What will we do if destabilization will rise on the Northern Caucasus – Chechnya, Ingushetia and Dagestan? It takes only 3 days to sail from Dagestan to the Kazakh shore of Caspian Sea. It is possible for the militants to blow up oil-and-gas pipelines, which pump our hydrocarbons. And there are artificial islands on the Caspian. And there will be a nuclear power station in Aktau, where the output of plutonium will be nearly 75 per cent.
All of these prospects are just possibilities, but the country should have some plans for reaction.
on October 9th, 2007 at 1:28 pm
I think possibility 1. and 2. are quite unlikely. Russian separatism in North Kazakhstan has lost its momentum and base. The real faultlines in Kazakhstani society today are those a) between the haves and have nots of the oil boom and Nursultanistic regime and b) different power groups within the elites. All ‘camps’ and ‘parties’ contain ethnic Kazakhs as well as ethnic Russians.
As for an Uighur revolt in Xinjiang: like the ‘free Tibet’ cause, I think it’s over and lost. The Uighurs (and Xinjiang Kazakhs) who do not want to be assimilated, ‘bantustanised’ or end up as an exotic tourist curiosity for these disgusting fluo baseball-capped Chinese tour groups will have no choice but to leave (to Kaz, Kyr, Turkey, … ).
3. Is quite likely. “What is the plan in case of Islam Karimov’s death” Celebrate, first of all.
Then hunt for his cronies, *both* his domestic and foreign supporters/cheerleaders and of course his spawn.
on October 10th, 2007 at 7:21 pm
I believe on point 1, he was talking about neighboring Kyrgyzstan (not Kazakhstan) which does continue to have a lot of tension between north and south.
on October 11th, 2007 at 1:08 pm
Oops, yes: it’s Kyrgyzstan. Well, in that case, I’m not too sure of that as well.
on October 12th, 2007 at 9:38 pm
Translation of the comment by Akbalta from the Russian-language blog:
There are some minor cultural differences between North and South of Kyrgyzstan, but no “quite tense moments” - that’s very inflated. However, there, certainly, is a fight for power between various clans.
on October 13th, 2007 at 6:11 am
I don’t know Mr. Marat’s position of course, but I’m not sure that all national security papers are public. Plans may well exist for all sorts of possibilities, but they will never be shown publicly. Think of what Uzbekistan would say if Kazakhstan released its plan to invade the country in case of the death of Karimov. Think of how Kazakhstan would feel if the US said, “And here’s our plan to send troops to Kazakhstan in case of civil war upon the death of Nazarbayev.” But such plans probably exist.