Translation of Marat’s post from the Russian-language blog.

Where may we see the wars for water in Central Asia?

1. Kazakhstan vs. China – Ili river;
2. Turkmenistan vs. Uzbekistan – Amu Darya river;
3. Possibly a row of collisions can happen in the basins of Syr Darya and Chu rivers; Kazakhstan vs. Uzbekistan – at Shardara, and Kazakhstan vs. Kyrgyzstan – for Shu river waters. Also conflicts can arise between Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan for Syr Darya river, and Uzbekistan vs. Tajikistan for a whole lot of small rivers running between these countries. So, to say the least, there is such a problematic region.

What would be the scenarios of these conflicts? It seems to me that they will develop in stages:

1. Diplomatic negotiations – (dis)agreements, reclamations etc.;
2. Economic pressure – shutting off gateways at dikes, payment claims, breaking down the schedules of water discharge, blockage of transit traffic, fees charging and etc.
3. “Secret” War – supporting opposition, financing criminal and terroristic groups, diversions, assassinations and terror acts;
4. Open War

This entirely will depend on the problem’s severity and weight categories of the opponents (for the countries with oil and gas reserves it would be easier to buy off, than to make war). Unlikely, China-Kazakhstan conflict will go further up to the second stage, and the same is the Kazakh–Kyrgyz one.

The scenarios for Kazakhstan vs. Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan vs. Uzbekistan can develop up to the stage # 3, and one cannot say for sure that it’s not happening right now. Presently the relations of Uzbekistan with both, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, are the most strained, which can later result in conflict. So this strain can eventually break up, and for the first turn – in relations between Uzbeks and Tajiks. When can it happen? I suppose, in 2009 -2010, when Karimov and Rakhmonov will be ready for “a little victorious war”.

P. S. These problems of water resources distribution will not be the main reason of a military conflict, as there are already many other reasons have accumulated, but - for sure - water problems may be used as an occasion.