Statistical Truth
This is a translated post by Zhanna Zhukova from the Russian-language blog.
Often our officials speak outloud about the leadership of Kazakhstan among all CIS countries. Well, yes, we are not outsiders. However, not the leaders for several years already. The published statistical data (%, Jan-Oct 2007 as compared to the analogous period of 2006) say, in particular, that
- GDP is higher in Azerbaijan (126.8), Armenia (113.3), Georgia (112.5) and Uzbekistan (109.8), than in Kazakhstan (109.7).
- industrial output growth is higher in Azerbaijan (126.4), Belarus (108.2), Kyrgyzstan (105.5), Russia (106.5), Tajikistan (108.6), Uzbekistan (111.9) and Ukraine (111), that in our country (104.5).
- retail turnover in Kazakhstan is 110.2, which is lower than in Azerbaijan (115), Belarus (115.9), Russia (114.8), Uzbekistan (118.4) and Ukraine (127.9).
on March 3rd, 2008 at 2:14 pm
Interestning figures Zhanna. Of course all statistical data has to be taken with a grain of salt - yet the figures you quote do show us that Kazakhstan is no longer the CIS’s top performer in terms of growth.
Usually, economic data from Uzbekistan has been riddled with inconsistencies and lack of statistical evidence, so I’d be careful with taking the figures at face value.
And if Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan score higher in industrial output growth, you need to put things into perspective, as both these countries are operating from a much lower base level and higher growth doesn’t mean all that much.
All in all, it’s interesting to see this data in the context of the recent “slow-down” speeches from Masimov and Nazarbayev: Kazakhstan will grow more slowly this year - and it’ll be interesting to see how the other CIS countries are coping with the global slowdown.
on March 3rd, 2008 at 11:43 pm
Interesting data indeed. One of the ways to standardize the data is to divide the performance indicators by the population (to get the per capital distribution). This way you get a more meaningful performance indicators.
on March 4th, 2008 at 1:27 am
First of all, GDP is not measured in percents. May be you meant GDP growth, not GDP? So, it is slower in Kazakhstan than in some other countries in the region, but it is even slower in the USA. The growth may be slower in some years and higher in others. However, in terms of GDP numbers per capita according to IMF, Kazakhstan’s GDP in 2007 ($6,314)among CIS countries was only lower than Russian ($8,612), but higher than in other CIS countries, excluding Baltic countries. Compare GDPs per capita of Belarus ($4,113), Ukraine ($2,830), Azerbaijan ($3,633), and Uzbekistan ($753). Similarly the countries are ranked according to their GDPs per capita at their purchasing power parity (PPP).
So, regardless the growth numbers for 2007, Kazakhstan still has comparatively larger economy than most of the region’s countries. The current slow down of the country’s economy shall help to reorganize it and boost in subsequesnt years.
on March 28th, 2008 at 12:42 pm
The figure of 110 for Kazakhstan’s retail turnover is the percent increase over the year before.