On 21 March, Dr. Igor Tomberg, senior research fellow with the Energy Research Center at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations, wrote an article entitled “Moscow is no Longer Kazakhstan’s Only Friend”:

While Europe, the United States, China and Russia compete for Eurasian resources, Kazakhstan is playing its own game, called “multi-vector politics.” The heightening confrontation between Russia and the West on energy security issues is forcing the government in Astana, the Kazakh capital, to distance itself from Moscow, which naturally irritates the latter.

Kazakhstan is already connected to a pipeline that carries Caspian oil from Baku (Azerbaijan) to Tbilisi (Georgia) and on to Ceyhan (Turkey), from which it is shipped to Western markets bypassing Russia. Nazarbayev discussed the construction of gas and oil pipelines across the Caspian Sea, also bypassing Russia, with U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney last May and with U.S. Secretary of Energy Samuel Bodman last September. In late February, Assistant Secretary of State Richard Boucher reminded Nazarbayev of the agreements reached during his visit to Washington last September.

Moscow is dissatisfied with its Central Asian partner also because of Nazarbayev’s plans to attend an energy summit that will be held in Poland in May. The Polish president, Lech Kaczynski, is expected to meet the leaders of four ex-Soviet countries - Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan - to discuss the possibility of extending Ukraine’s Odessa-Brody oil pipeline to the Polish city of Plock to pump Kazakh oil to Poland. Last month, Astana announced the formation of a Kazakh-Polish working group to discuss the project. Kaczynski also wants to raise the issue during his visit to Astana on March 28.

The article came like a thunder in a clear sky. Because for Russia, in its turn, its “post-Soviet politics” has been dominated by the relations with the Baltic countries, disputes with Georgia and annoyances with the Ukraine. Central Asia is different: far from Europe, it would never enter the European Union, and probably not join NATO (only Kazakhstan joined the Individual Partnership Action Plan on 31 January 2006). It is used to being ruled by Russia and the Soviet Union throughout its history. Kunaev, the First Secretary of the Communist Party of Kazakhstan at the time of the collapse of the USSR, wrote in his book that Kazakh political elite was desperately waiting for orders from Russia shortly after the collapse. Russia was too busy with its own problems though, and the moment was lost. Now the lack of information and the lack of interest in Kazakhstan from Russia results in a paranoia when Kazakhstan becomes independent in its foreign policies. (more…)